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84 comments
286 forecasters

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

0.4%chance
0.4%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
NMorrisonRyanBeck
Opened:Feb 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Aug 7, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2023
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Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100
Yes
1,000
Yes
3,000
5%
144 forecasters

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

20% chance
33

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

21% chance
21
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