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Metaculus Help: Spread the word

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Which percentage of Metaculus questions resolving in Q1 2019 will resolve positively?

This is a follow-up to the same question for Q4 2018.

The resolution percentage is calculated by

  • taking all binary questions which resolve unambiguously in Q1 2019
  • calc 100 * (count(resolved positively) / count(total))

I.e., non-binary questions and ambiguously resolved questions are ignored. The question will close one month before the resolution date, that is just on 1st of March 2019.

Using a shell, curl and jq you can see the current score via

curl --silent https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/export/ | jq 'map(select(.qtype == "binary" and .resolve_time >= "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z" and .resolve_time < "2019-04-01T00:00:00Z" and .resolution != -1)) | (100 *  (map(select(.resolution == 1)) | length) / length)' -

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.