18 comments
113 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?
0.5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 4, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 4, 2023
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2% chance
224
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Jun 2032
(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)
Jun 2032
(04 Jul 2030 - >Jan 2040)
16 forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
45% chance
65