assembling contingent estimations generating intelligent understanding crowdsourcing precise predictions formulating calibrated predictions computing quantitative wisdom mapping the future modeling intelligent insights formulating calibrated forecasts forecasting critical predictions forecasting predictive estimations delivering predictive understanding crowdsourcing contingent contingencies delivering contingent wisdom mapping critical insights
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030?

The first test launch of NASA's new "Space Launch System" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.

Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, perhaps after only a handful of flights.

On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, SLS is currently scheduled to send the "Europa Clipper" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the "Lunar Gateway" space station as currently envisioned.

How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?

Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.

Categories: Industry – Space, Technology – Space

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.