Question

Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?

Resolved:No

41 comments41

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction

12%

(4% - 28%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

7.3

Community Peer Score

0.8

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Oct 29, 2018

Closes:

Jul 15, 2019

Resolves:

Jul 15, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 31, 2018

Politics

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

33%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Oct 29, 2018

Closes:

Jul 15, 2019

Resolves:

Jul 15, 2019

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 31, 2018

Politics

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

33%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?