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Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was one of the most successful arms control agreements in recent history. Signed in 1987 by President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev, the treaty called for disarmament of all nuclear and conventional missiles and their launchers with ranges between 500–5,500 km (310–3,420 mi), excluding sea-launched missiles.

After 20 years, both signatories started to allege the other was violating the treaty. Russia supposedly by developing the SSC-8 cruise missile, and the US by opening bases in Rumania and Poland. The US' increased use of armed drones is also claimed to be in violation of the treaty.

In late 2018 President Trump declared his intention to withdraw from the treaty, citing both Russia's violation and China's arms build-up.

Thus we wonder: Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?

Keep in mind, expanding the treaty to include more signatories, or having it replaced with a slightly different treaty (à la NAFTA turned USMCA) would still be interpreted as functionally continuing.

Categories: Politics

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