41 comments
30 forecasters
Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?
12%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 12% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 29, 2018
Closes:Jul 15, 2019
Resolved:Feb 1, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 31, 2018
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
25% chance
50
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?
45% chance
39
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4.8% chance
27