assembling contingent understanding composing calibrated predictions generating quantitative estimations computing accurate estimations formulating intelligent futures mapping the future exploring probable forecasts crowdsourcing predictive understanding mapping probable contingencies forecasting accurate understanding modeling contingent understanding crowdsourcing accurate estimations forecasting accurate estimations formulating critical insights
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?

On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the Hubble Telescope entered safe mode. Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations.

From NASA:

Chandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come.

But for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?

Question resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.

Categories: Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology , Technology – Space

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.