Question
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
Total Forecasters146
Community Prediction
85%
(69% - 90%)
Make a Prediction
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jul 12, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 6, 2018
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5%
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
30%
Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jul 12, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 6, 2018
Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?
5%
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
30%