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Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
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| Date | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
March 15, 2024 | no | |||
March 15, 2025 | no | |||
March 15, 2026 | 0.1% | |||
Resolved Mar 15, 2024
Community Peer Score
1.1
Community Baseline Score
98.7
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Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 19, 2023
Closes:Mar 15, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Mar 15, 2026
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Authors:
Opened:Mar 19, 2023
Closes:Mar 15, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Mar 15, 2026
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1%