Question
How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?
Resolved:141Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction
159
(139 - 202)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <115 | 10.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 138.6 | — |
| median | 159.3 | — |
| upper 75% | 202.4 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >900 | 0.2% | — |
What was the final result?141
Community Peer Score
33.7
Authors:
Opened:Mar 17, 2023
Closes:Mar 29, 2023
Resolves:Apr 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 19, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
151
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
2.8%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
7%
Authors:
Opened:Mar 17, 2023
Closes:Mar 29, 2023
Resolves:Apr 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 19, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
151
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
2.8%
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
7%