Question

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction

1.2%

(1% - 2.3%)

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50%

community: 1.2%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Could Bird Flu Spread between Humans? Here’s What It Would Take

Scientific American•Jul 16, 2025

Bird Flu Is Killing Wildlife, and Experts Fear the Ecological Toll

Scientific American•Jul 16, 2025

Child hospitalised abroad as bird flu cases climb

Independent•Jul 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

120

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Could Bird Flu Spread between Humans? Here’s What It Would Take

Scientific American•Jul 16, 2025

Bird Flu Is Killing Wildlife, and Experts Fear the Ecological Toll

Scientific American•Jul 16, 2025

Child hospitalised abroad as bird flu cases climb

Independent•Jul 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

120

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%