Question

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

127 comments127

Total Forecasters1154

Community Prediction

25 Aug 2025

(03 Jul 2025 21:42 - 09 Nov 2025)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15 May 2026
community	03 Jul 2025 21:42	25 Aug 2025	09 Nov 2025	5.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	03 Jul 2025 21:42	—
median	25 Aug 2025	—
upper 75%	09 Nov 2025	—
Upper bound
>15 May 2026	5.5%	—

Authors:

H559

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

May 14, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

May 15, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2023

Business of AI

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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