Question
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
02 Jan 2025
(14 May 2024 - 22 Oct 2025)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 14 May 2024 | — |
| median | 02 Jan 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 22 Oct 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >14 Feb 2030 | 0.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 19, 2023
Closes:Feb 13, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 21, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Mar 19, 2023
Closes:Feb 13, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 21, 2023