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Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?
As a follow up on a previous question that resolved firmly negative, let's extend our timeline to the next year.
Trumps's approval rating has hovered in the low-40s since the start of 2018, a slight recovery from last year's high-30s. The economy has thus far remained steadfast, and a bombshell from the Mueller investigation seems unlikely at the moment. Presidential approval ratings tend to revert to to the mean over time, although whether it can do so from 42% in a year is another question entirely.
And again on a morbid note, a major terrorist attack or other calamity could temporarily spike Trump's popularity in a Rally Around the Flag effect.
By December 31, 2019, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.