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Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019?
As a follow up on a previous question that resolved firmly negative, let's extend our timeline to the next year.
Trumps's approval rating has hovered in the low-40s since the start of 2018, a slight recovery from last year's high-30s. The economy has thus far remained steadfast, and a bombshell from the Mueller investigation seems unlikely at the moment. Presidential approval ratings tend to revert to to the mean over time, although whether it can do so from 42% in a year is another question entirely.
And again on a morbid note, a major terrorist attack or other calamity could temporarily spike Trump's popularity in a Rally Around the Flag effect.
By December 31, 2019, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker?
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