Question

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

6
13
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction
50%
(45% - 70%)

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50%
community: 50%
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Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:Mar 20, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 22, 2023
Geopolitics
Federal Security Service
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
List of states with nuclear weapons
Central Intelligence Agency
Secret Intelligence Service
China
United Kingdom
India
International Atomic Energy Agency
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization