61 forecasters

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

55%chance

Authors:

Opened:

Mar 20, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 22, 2023

Turning Back From the Brink of Nuclear War

AntiWar•Oct 23, 2025

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