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8 comments
69 forecasters

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?

0.1%chance
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
dschwarzTheGrassGuy
Opened:Mar 29, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 31, 2023
Economy & Business
Politics
🏆 2023 Leaderboard
Al Jazeera logo
US Treasury’s Bessent says China has approved TikTok transfer deal
Al Jazeera•Oct 31, 2025
Independent logo
China has approved TikTok transfer deal, Bessent says
Independent•Oct 31, 2025
PBS NewsHour logo
China says it will work with U.S. to resolve TikTok issues after Trump-Xi meeting
PBS NewsHour•Oct 30, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
59.7%
Yes, non-adversary owner
39.3%
No
1%
69 forecasters

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

4% chance
83

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20% chance
80
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