Question

Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?

Resolved:Yes

23 comments23

Total Forecasters304

Community Prediction

90%

(80% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.9

Community Peer Score

8.1

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Mar 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Yes, former Russian president said 'number of countries' ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads

Snopes•Jun 24, 2025

Putin Ally Doubles Down on Iran Nuclear Weapons Warning After Trump Reacts

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Russia's former president says countries are lining up to give Iran their nukes. Analysts are calling his bluff.

Business Insider•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Mar 28, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Yes, former Russian president said 'number of countries' ready to supply Iran with nuclear warheads

Snopes•Jun 24, 2025

Putin Ally Doubles Down on Iran Nuclear Weapons Warning After Trump Reacts

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Russia's former president says countries are lining up to give Iran their nukes. Analysts are calling his bluff.

Business Insider•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.1%

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%