28 comments
46 forecasters
Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2018
Closes:May 31, 2019
Resolved:May 17, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 6, 2018
Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? (2028)
20% chance
12
When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?
60% chance
28
Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?
8% chance
11