Question

Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?

Resolved:Yes

24 comments24

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction

81%

(75% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

62.8

Community Peer Score

24.3

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Nov 19, 2018

Closes:

Nov 30, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2018

Politics

2018 Leaderboard

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

20%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?

19.5%

Authors:

isinlor

Opened:

Nov 19, 2018

Closes:

Nov 30, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2018

Politics

2018 Leaderboard

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

20%

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Kemi Badenoch resign or face a leadership challenge as leader of the Conservative Party before September 2025?

19.5%