formulating probable wisdom delivering definitive contingencies assembling precise wisdom forecasting critical insights formulating calibrated wisdom mapping the future computing critical contingencies modeling predictive futures predicting accurate estimations mapping calibrated forecasts generating quantitative estimations computing precise predictions crowdsourcing quantitative estimations delivering definitive wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019?

UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

According to the Independent:

The 1922 Committee, currently chaired by Sir Graham Brady, has the power to trigger a no confidence vote in the party leader in the event that it receives such letters from 15 per cent of MPs (meaning 48 at present). Once the threshold is passed Sir Graham is obliged to begin the vote as soon as possible.

If the prime minister survives the vote and sees off a leadership challenge, she would be rewarded with a year’s immunity from a fresh coup attempt.

But if she were to lose, she would be obliged to step down and allow for the election of a replacement, once again plunging Westminster into chaos. Downing Street has said Ms May would fight any no confidence motion.

A no confidence vote was last successfully used in 1979 and before that in 1924.

The question asks will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at 1 January 2019?

Related questions:


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.