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19 comments
120 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026?

CDU/CSUresult: Yes
FDPresult: No
Grüneresult: No
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:Apr 17, 2023
Closes:Jul 30, 2025
Resolved:Feb 23, 2025
Elections
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
PBS NewsHour logo
Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right AfD party the biggest winner in German local elections
PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025
Independent logo
German far right triples support in local election vote, early forecasts show
Independent•Sep 15, 2025
Al Jazeera logo
Germany’s ruling CDU wins local elections in key state, as AfD surges
Al Jazeera•Sep 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which party will lead the next German government?

CDU/CSU
73.4%
SPD
17.6%
AfD
5.2%
5 others
8 forecasters

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

20% chance
69

Which party will win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the next Italian election?

Brothers of Italy
74%
Democratic Party
24%
Five Star Movement
1%
6 others
24 forecasters
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