5
26 forecasters

Which party will lead the next German government?

CDU/CSU
73.3%
SPD
17.6%
AfD
4.2%
The Greens
4.2%
Top Key Factors
Positive development of economy and labor market.
Increases Likelihood for CDU/CSU
AfD polling as strongest force
Increases Likelihood for AfD
Reduction of housing prices and better affordability.
Increases Likelihood for CDU/CSU
Less media attention of migration and related issues.
Decreases Likelihood for AfD