17 comments
37 forecasters
Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?
44%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 44% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 27, 2016
Closes:Mar 1, 2016
Resolved:Mar 3, 2016
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 27, 2016
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
8 forecasters
Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?
65% chance
985
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
2 forecasters