exploring predictive wisdom exploring intelligent insights composing definitive estimations formulating quantitative estimations forecasting accurate forecasts mapping the future assembling critical estimations composing probable wisdom calculating critical contingencies forecasting quantitative forecasts assembling quantitative understanding composing calibrated forecasts composing accurate predictions composing quantitative estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?

Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups Giving What We Can and Givewell.

Since then, around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes to the world’s most effective charities, thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively donate around $5-10M each year, has resulted in $170 million+ moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, which has made around $600M of charitable grants.

Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'.

Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.

Categories: Social issues, Social issues – Charities, Effective Altruism

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.