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Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?


Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups Giving What We Can and Givewell.

Since then, around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes to the world’s most effective charities, thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively donate around $5-10M each year, has resulted in $170 million+ moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, which has made around $600M of charitable grants.

Effective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'.

Edit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.

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