FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    Elon Musk Personally Goes to Mars

    Created by jzima on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by jzima on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question).

    Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In an interview with Axios Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.

    Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?

    This question will resolve as Yes if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It will resolve as No if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.

    Categories:
    Technology – Space

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.