Question

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

906

452 comments452

Total Forecasters4285

Community Prediction

0.8%

(0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.8%

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Oct 13, 2016

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

SpaceX Mars transportation infrastructure

Colonization of Mars

SpaceX

Elon Musk's SpaceX's Starship spirals and explodes as debris plummets to earth causing ground stops on flights with chaos at multiple airports

Daily Mail•Mar 7, 2025

China's 2030 Plan to Land on Moon

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Elon Musk's Starship blew up again — and our prospects of mining the moon hang in the balance

Business Insider•Mar 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

57%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.4%

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

24%

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