Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021?
Louis C.K. is a comedian known for his work in stand-up, television, and film. His stand-up comedy is critically acclaimed; in 2017, Rolling Stone listed him as the "#4 best stand-up comic of all time", the highest position they awarded to a living comedian.
Multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct as part of the broader Me Too campaign or "Weinstein effect". In November 2017, he released a statement corroborating the claims, saying that "these stories are true" and that he would "step back and take a long time to listen".
After withdrawing from public life for nine months, in August 2018 he performed an un-billed, 'surprise' stand-up set at New York's Comedy Cellar. In October, he performed at the Comedy Cellar again, but this time his name was advertised outside. And earlier this month, on November 8th, he appeared on stage at a venue in Paris, performing a set that reportedly lasted over an hour.
Although his first public appearance in August was apparently met with a "standing ovation", his surprisingly quick return has earned negative reactions from comedians, audience members and opinion writers alike. In spite of this outcry, C.K. has been steadily raising his public profile. This question asks the following:
Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up comedy special before 2021?
A "stand-up comedy special" is defined here as a piece of recorded media that fulfils the following criteria:
Total run time of at least 30 minutes
Stand-up comedy – that is, a single comedian performing to a live audience with the primary intention of making them laugh – is performed for at least 1/2 of the total run time (minus credits and intro)
At least 3/4 of the stand-up comedy appearing in the piece of media is performed by C.K.
Details: the recording has to be intentionally released by C.K. or his professional representation; the recording has to be accessible to 'laypeople' who don't work in the media industry; it has to be a recording of previously unreleased material; it does not necessarily have to cost money to view; the official release date in at least one jurisdiction has to be before January 1st 2021; and it can be in audio or video format, so a stand-up comedy album will also count as a "special" here. The criteria are intended to exclude "showcases" in which C.K. is one performer of many, documentaries or other formats featuring C.K. in which he performs a small amount of stand-up, re-releases of previous material, recordings in which C.K. opens for another comedian who is the main act, surreptitious recordings of live performances, and leaks or limited releases of specials before 2021 when the official release date is after 31st December 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.