The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015

In a related question, we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.

For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' Linpack Benchmark, which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?

Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:

• In June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.

• In November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.

Development over time can be seen in this chart.

What sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?

Resolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!