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Will poker player Alati win a $100K bet by staying in a dark room for 30 days?
The title says it all. Per this story for example, the bet is on between Alati and Young. For Alati to win he must
remain in a dark room, chosen and set up by Young. He'd have no access to light, human interaction or any electronic entertainment. Food would be delivered at randomized intervals every three to six days, with six days worth of provisions given at a time. Alati would have a yoga mat and enough room to exercise but not much else.
Will Alati do it?
Resolves positive if Young pays Alati, negative if Alati pays Young, ambiguous if full payment is not made by either by April 1.
Per this story Alati entered the room around 11/23, so we'll set a close time of 12/20 and resolve time of 1/1.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.