Question

Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?

Resolved:Yes

3 comments3

Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction

81%

(75% - 82%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

69.1

Community Peer Score

-1.2

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Dec 4, 2018

Closes:

Dec 13, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 15, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 4, 2018

Technology

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

21.8

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Dec 4, 2018

Closes:

Dec 13, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 15, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 4, 2018

Technology

Computing and Math

2018 Leaderboard

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

21.8

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2