3 comments
46 forecasters
Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?
81%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 81% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2018
Closes:Dec 13, 2018
Resolved:Dec 15, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 4, 2018
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
99.1%
(96.3 - 99.7)
22 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.7%
(92.3 - 98.7)
96.7%
(92.3 - 98.7)
11 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
41.1 users
(34.2 - 45.4)
41.1 users
(34.2 - 45.4)
45 forecasters