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Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?

reddit is a social news aggregator and the 21st most visited site globally. Users submit links, images or text to 'subreddit' communities on the site which are then voted and commented on by other users. A score are given for each submission that has some relationship to the number of 'upvotes' minus the number of 'downvotes'.

This question asks the following:

Will the "top submissions over the last 24 hours" on include a submission with a score of at least 100,000 on December 15th 2018?


  • To counter vote manipulation, reddit applies a form of 'fuzzing' to each post's score, such that the precise value shown varies slightly on each refresh. This means that different users see different scores for the same post. To prevent ambiguity in the resolution, the scores of the "top submissions over the last 24 hours" will be defined as the scores shown on the most recent snapshot of the site on with a listed time after December 14th 2018 23:59 GMT.

  • has produced at least one snapshot of that page on most individual days over the past few months. However, there is a chance that no snapshot will be produced on December 15th (GMT), so it's possible that the actual snapshot used for the resolution will have been captured one or more days after that date.


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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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