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Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?
The Eurovision Song Contest is held each year to bring the nations of Europe together, in a spirit of comradely rivalry, celebrating the relative harmony of these past seventy years, smiling to each other and towards the future, and to showcase some of the most insane performances ever devised by human minds.
The definition of the "Euro" prefix has become increasingly dubious. The last contest's winners, and the location of the event this year, is Israel, and the competition has been graced for the past four contests by none other than... Australia.
It isn't all silly fun and games, though: the contest is rife with controversies about national prejudices and vote-rigging attempts, and it was even used as a signal to start the 1974 Carnation Revolution that overthrew the Portuguese fascist regime.
This question asks the following:
Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is at the time a member of the European Union?
This question will close after the second semi-final on May 16th 2019, but before the final on May 18th 2019.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.