Question
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?
Resolved:YesTotal Forecasters199
Community Prediction
99%
(98% - 99.9%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?Yes
Community Peer Score
17.7
Authors:
Opened:Apr 19, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 19, 2023
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
2.5%
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
7%
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
Authors:
Opened:Apr 19, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolves:Dec 31, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 19, 2023
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
2.5%
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
7%