formulating probable wisdom delivering definitive contingencies assembling precise wisdom forecasting critical insights formulating calibrated wisdom mapping the future computing critical contingencies modeling predictive futures predicting accurate estimations mapping calibrated forecasts generating quantitative estimations computing precise predictions crowdsourcing quantitative estimations delivering definitive wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.

The official tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here.

As of December 2018, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemndations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.

There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.

This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield above 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the above conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2019 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2019. Tests or detonations occuring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.