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Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.

The official tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here.

As of December 2018, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemndations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.

There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.

This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield above 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the above conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2019 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2019. Tests or detonations occuring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.


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