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How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump has indicated on multiple occasions that he plans to seek re-election in 2020. In fact, he filed FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on the day he was inaugurated in 2017, and according to NBC he has already raised more than $100 million for his re-election campaign.…

We already have a question on whether or not Trump will be re-elected - but we don't currently have any question that will reveal expectations about the margin of his victory or defeat.

To win the Presidency of the United States, a candidate must obtain 270 Electoral College votes out of a potential 538. In 2016, Donald Trump was certified to have received 304 Electoral College votes.

The largest absolute number of Electoral College votes ever received by any candidate was 525, won by Ronald Reagan in 1984, 97.58% of all possible votes - but Franklin D. Roosevelt and James Monroe received a higher percentage of votes (98.49% and 99.57% respectively.)

There is a potential complication here: faithless electors. In many US States, it is legally possible for an Electoral College elector to refuse to honor the vote of their State population and to cast their vote for someone else. There have been a total of 167 instances of faithlessness as of 2018, including several in the last election in 2016. To counter this potential complication, we will say that Trump has 'won' whatever the final number of legally valid Electoral College votes certified by the United States Congress is in the first week of January 2021, accounting for the effect of any faithless electors.

This question will resolve ambiguously in the event that Trump is not a candidate on Election Day in the 2020 Presidential Election.


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