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What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?
We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.
In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.
As of 2014, estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.
This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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