composing calibrated predictions formulating calibrated predictions formulating critical understanding generating critical understanding exploring accurate insights mapping the future calculating contingent predictions modeling precise understanding forecasting calibrated contingencies computing definitive insights computing precise understanding exploring calibrated wisdom mapping critical forecasts predicting predictive contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?

Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution.

As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Will Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the Index of Economic Freedom?

This question resolves positive if the 2023 Index of Economic Freedom assigns an index value below 50, indicating "repressed economic activity". Currently, Cuba has an index value of 31.9, meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.

Edit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the Index of Economic Freedom assigned to Cuba in 2023.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.