calculating quantitative wisdom crowdsourcing intelligent understanding delivering probable insights calculating contingent understanding computing precise contingencies mapping the future exploring probable understanding composing quantitative understanding assembling precise insights generating definitive futures predicting definitive insights modeling precise estimations computing precise forecasts formulating critical estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

A new major religion on 1 January 2050?

As of 2012, at a time when the world population was approximately 7.167 billion, estimates from (a website established in 1998 that collects and presents information on religious demographics; it is the largest pool of such data freely available on the internet) indicated that approximately 84% of the world population practiced some form of religion.

At that time, only four specific religious faiths had more than an estimated 500 million adherents. They were Christianity at 2.4 billion, Islam at 1.8 billion, Hinduism at 1.15 billion, and Buddhism at 521 million. See the list here for more details.

This question asks: as of 1 January 2050, will there be any single religious faith with more than 500 million adherents which does not appear in the list of specific religious faiths included in the body of this question?


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.