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Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?
The NSA revelations in 2013 demonstrated how vulnerable and frequently breached the world's internet data is. Following Edward Snowden's advocacy, and the advocacy of the CA Security Council, Wikipedia CEO Jimmy Wales and other internet leaders have pushed for the move to end-to-end encryption, or the practice of encrypting data packets at every stage between user and host. This movement is dubbed 'Always-On SSL,' a reference to the cryptographic protocols used to elevate HTTP domains to HTTPS (HTTP - Secure). Many sites with huge traffic shares, like Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo, have already been moving towards end-to-end encryption.
According to this report by Sandvine, the amount of encrypted data packets in North American internet traffic is projected to increase from 29.1% (April 2015) to nearly 60-70% by 2017. A large contributor to the projections could be Netflix, comprising over 30% of downloaded traffic, which announced last April to shareholders that it would be moving towards HTTPS soon.
These projections suggest a rapid transition, but there is reasonable speculation that full end-to-end encryption won't be accomplished as soon as reports predict.
By April 2017, will Sandvine or one of the top 25 media outlets publish a report finding that 70% or more of either North American or the world's internet traffic be encrypted?
Metaculus help: Predicting
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.