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Will US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data here.

At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%?

For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press.

Categories: Economy – US, Social issues

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