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Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?
A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?
For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.