Question
When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?
Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction2027-08-16 (2025-12-22 - 2033-06-08)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
lower 25% | Dec 2025 | — |
median | Aug 2027 | — |
upper 75% | Jun 2033 | — |
Upper bound | ||
>2060-01-01 | 1.3% | — |
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060