M

Question

When will a runner break the 2-hour mark in a competitive marathon?

Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction2027-08-16 (2025-12-22 - 2033-06-08)

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CDF

weight:
QuartilescommunityMy Prediction
lower 25%Dec 2025
medianAug 2027
upper 75%Jun 2033
Upper bound
>2060-01-011.3%
Authors:
Opened:May 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2059
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060

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