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Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020?
Jeremy Corbyn is currently the Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition in the United Kingdom, and has occupied these offices since 2015.
The current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is Theresa May, Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, who has occupied these offices since 2016.
Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, no general election can be held in the United Kingdom before 2022 unless a supermajority of two thirds of members of the House of Commons vote for one, or unless the government of the day falls in the event of a vote of no confidence.
However, note that it is legally impossible in the United Kingdom for Parliament to bind itself or any future Parliament, and there is nothing in law preventing Parliament from amending or abolishing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 by simple majority vote.
This question asks: Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1 2020?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that Jeremy Corbyn is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before January 1 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.