predicting accurate contingencies predicting predictive wisdom calculating accurate futures forecasting definitive insights modeling precise contingencies mapping the future formulating calibrated futures delivering accurate understanding modeling critical futures formulating precise forecasts crowdsourcing contingent forecasts calculating probable contingencies aggregating precise understanding calculating predictive wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will the 10,000th human reach space?

The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.

The first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of 561 people had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous.

As of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired Space Shuttle, which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but never actually carried more than eight. In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.

This question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?

Resolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.

Persons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count.

Persons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.

Finally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.