Question

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

Resolved:Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction

85%

(75% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.2

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 4, 2023

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

May 2, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

May 4, 2023

Regulation of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Sam Altman’s AI Empire Relies on Brutal Labor Exploitation

Jacobin•Jul 6, 2025

Meta announces AI Superintelligence Lab called MSL

•Jul 3, 2025

Chinese tech firms gaining fast on Silicon Valley in AI race: report

New York Post•Jul 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.28

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

3.1×10²⁵

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%