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Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?

On 19 December 2018, Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was convicted of perverting the course of justice. Given the serious nature of this criminal offence, it is widely expected that she will either resign (in the usual manner; by taking an office of profit under the Crown), be recalled by her constituents, or be removed from office under the Representation of the People Act 1981, which states that any MP will be disqualified from sitting as an MP if they are “detained anywhere in the British Islands or the Republic of Ireland ... for more than a year for any offence”.

Given that Ms Onasanya's imminent departure from the House of Commons is quite likely, it is probable that a by-election will be held in early 2019 to elect a new Member for Peterborough.

This question asks: Will the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate win the next Parliamentary election held for the Peterborough constituency, regardless of when it is held?

This question closes retroactively one day before polls open.

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