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20 comments
125 forecasters

Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?

25%chance
25%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 25% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Dec 22, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2020
Resolved:Dec 31, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 23, 2018
Economy & Business
Technology
Space
2016-2020 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

2025
58.2
2030
74.7
2035
86.8
47 forecasters

When will an Adaptive Cycle Jet Engine be successfully used in the launch of a rocket to an altitude of at least 160 kilometers?

Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
Jul 2034
(Aug 2032 - >Dec 2034)
8 forecasters

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

2025
10.9
2030
32.1
2035
64.3
36 forecasters
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