85 forecasters

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?

20%chance

20%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 20% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 22, 2018

Closes:

Mar 1, 2019

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 23, 2018

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Kim Jong Un oversees ‘eye-opening’ test of new long-range nuclear missile

Independent•Sep 9, 2025

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Gives Major Nuclear Update

Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025

North Korea conducts its final ground test of a solid-fuel engine for long-range missiles

NBC•Sep 9, 2025

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