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Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?

There have been a number of North Korean missile tests. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures

As of 30 November 2017, North Korea has carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984. 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il-sung and 16 under Kim Jong-il. Under Kim Jong-un, more than 80 tests have been undertaken.

2017 saw tensions reach perhaps their highest level ever after dozens of missiles were tested over a period of several months, including multiple missiles launched over Japanese territory, and the launch of ICBMs believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States mainland.

United States President Donald Trump, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, then warned that the United States would "totally destroy North Korea" if forced to do so.

As of December 20 2018, the most recent North Korean ballistic missile launch took place on November 28, 2017 when North Korea launched an ICBM from the vicinity of Pyongsong at 1:30pm EST/3:00am Pyongyang time. The rocket traveled for 50 minutes and reached 2800 miles (4,500 km) in height, both of which were new milestones.

In 2018,North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un met with United States President Donald Trump and signed an agreement to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.

However, on 20 December 2018, North Korea announced "it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States removes its nuclear threat first," raising further doubts as to whether Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un will ever relinquish an arsenal he may see as his greatest guarantee of survival, and raises the spectre of a return to sabre rattling.

This question asks: Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?

This question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations or by confirmation of any any permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)

This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.


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